Canada's forests, which account for about 7% of the world's total forest lands has long been considered a major carbon dioxide sink, but things have recently changed, according to a Chicago tribune article, written by Howard Witt.

Scientists have concluded that Canada's precious forests, stressed from damage caused by global warming, insect infestations and persistent fires since 1999, have crossed an ominous line and are now pumping out more climate-changing carbon dioxide than they are sequestering (source).

Experts now predict that Canadian forests will remain net carbon sources, instead of sinks until at least 2022, and perhaps longer.

Canadian officials say global warming is causing the crisis in their forests. Inexorably rising temperatures are slowly drying out forest lands, leaving trees more susceptible to fires, which release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.

The dreaded Mountain Pine Beetle has devastated forests in British Columbia and is now threatening parts of Alberta. It is believed that higher temperatures have accelerated the spread of this insect.

The Mountain Pine Beetle.

"That's what's causing some of our forests to switch from a carbon sink position to a source position," said Jim Snetsinger, British Columbia's chief forester. "Once those infested trees are killed by the pine beetle, they are no longer sequestering carbon—they are giving it off."

Categories: Science

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In part one of her Headline Earth series highlighting Barack Obama's environmental picks for his Cabinet, host Katie Fehlinger takes a look at Energy Secretary nominee Dr. Steven Chu.

What is your opinion of this important selection?

Categories: video

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2009

I want to wish everyone a happy New Year!

Last year was a lot of fun doing this blog and hopefully this year will be even better.

This will be an open forum day, so feel free to express your thoughts on climate change in the comment section. Brett.

Categories: Off Topic

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) led a recent scientific assessment which studied the likelihood and extent to which human activity or natural variations have driven surface warming and precipitation in North America over the past 50 years.

Here is what they found, according to the ScienceDaily article............

Changes in sea-surface temperature patterns likely played an important role in determining differences in United States regional temperature trends and large precipitation swings.

These regional differences in sea-surface temperature trends can be either natural or human-caused, but the assessment also found that an increase in greenhouse gases is likely responsible for more than half of the average continental warming of 1.6 F during the past 50 years.

"Using reanalysis and attribution methods we can now say with more confidence what’s driving some of the extreme climate conditions of the past few years: whether it’s global warming, El Nino, La Nina, or some other pattern," said NOAA scientist Martin Hoerling.

Categories: Past Climate

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Neanderthal man.

Neanderthal extinction was likely caused by competition with humans and not from climate change as some other research has suggested, according to a new study that was funded by the National Science Foundation International Research Fellowship Program and the EuroClimate and OMLL programs of the European Science Foundation.

Using archaeological and chronological data with high resolution paleoclimatic simulations, researchers have determined that neanderthals and anatomically modern humans (AMH) exploited similar niches and continued to do so in the absence of contact.

The research team concluded that the southerly contraction of the neanderthal range in southwestern Europe was not due to climate change or change in adaptation, but rather the competition with the concurrent AMH expansion that led to the eventual extinction of the neanderthals.

You can read the full study with much more detail right here, from PLoS One.

Categories: Science

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Scientific research which claimed that a reduction of cosmic rays (radiation from space) during the last decades contributed to the global temperature rise is being challenged by a new study by a group of scientists from Norway and Iceland.

Cosmic rays. Image courtesy of NASA.

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board satellites, the researchers from Norway and Iceland determined that cosmic rays most likely do not contribute to climate change, since the effect of cosmic rays on clouds is too small to have that much impact. According to the Laser Focus World article, this particular research is supported by some earlier findings.

The team used observations from so-called Forbush decrease events during the study. These events are sudden outbreaks of intense solar activity that lead to a strong reduction of cosmic rays, lasting for a couple of days. The researchers have identified 22 such events between 2000 and 2005.

Previous studies have mainly considered cloud cover, but the high spatial and spectral resolution of the MODIS data also allows for a more in depth study of microphysical parameters such as cloud droplet size, cloud water content and cloud optical depth. No statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and galactic cosmic rays.

Categories: Science

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A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey states that the United States faces the possibility of a much faster climate change by the end of the century than what earlier studies have indicated.

Satellite data over the past two years shows the world's major ice sheets melting much more rapidly than previously thought, and based on this new information the global sea level rise by 2100 could be as much as 4 feet, according to the report. The earlier report from IPCC estimated a 1.5 foot sea level rise by 2100, but that report did not factor in the lubrication under the ice sheet.

The other major point of this new report was that the Southwestern U.S. may have already entered a prolonged drought that could extend all the way to the end of the century. Nearly all of the 24 computer models that were used in this study showed this long term drought.

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But, the report also indicated that were also some global warming effects that are NOT likely to occur by 2100........

--An abrupt release of methane from the seabed and permafrost.
--A shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, which brings warm water north and colder water south.

Thirty-two scientists from federal and non-federal institutions contributed to the report, which took nearly two years to complete. The Climate Change Science Program, which was established in 1990, coordinates the climate research of 13 different federal agencies, according to the Washington Post Article.

Categories: Science

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The odds of a "white Christmas" in temperate zones have diminished in the last century, according to European climate and meteorology experts and will continue to do so through the century due to climate change, or should we say global warming. Better yet, maybe we should stick to the NASA and IPCC approved global climate change. (see my blog over this past weekend regarding terminology).

According to the Reuters article, the odds of a "white Christmas" are rapidly diminishing in places like Oslo, Norway.

Oddsmakers in Britain even place bets on whether or not there will be a "white Christmas" at a particular location. Hmm....Maybe I should get in on that action. Those odds have got to be awfully long for London.

The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center has satellite data collected since 1978 showing northern hemisphere snow cover for the March-April period has declined by about 2 million square km (772,300 sq mile) to 36 million square km. (From the Reuters article).

Snowlovers should not get too concerned. Gerhard Mueller-Wetermeier, a German climatologist noted that there will be plenty of snow in many temperate zones for decades to come with little noticeable change. Also, keep in mind, warmer air can hold more moisture and in northern temperate zones, including higher elevations this could certainly translate to more snowfall.

Below is our latest U.S. prediction for snow cover on Christmas Day. If this prediction ends up fairly accurate then the areal coverage of snow (trace or more) in the Lower 48 would actually be above the normal. Also, I read that this may end up being the first year since 1971 that all of Canada has a "white Christmas". I personally think it will be about 99.5% of the country, as some of the immediate southern coastal areas of Atlantic Canada and western Vancouver Island may end up green/brown.

I wish everyone a safe and cheerful holiday season!

Categories: Odd News

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A large portion of the Pacific Ocean has been going through some cooler times recently, and it is not a sign that the earth is headed for another ice age. It's actually the cool phase of the PDO or what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The cool phase of the PDO, which is a large, long-lived pattern of climate variability in the Pacific associated with a general cooling of Pacific waters recently made its return. Based on the PDO index from the University of Washington, the Pacific has been consistently under the cool phase of the PDO since the end of last year. There was a lot of variability going back to 1999, while much of the 1980's and 1990's saw the warm phase.

The PDO is a long term oscillation which can last anywhere from 5 to 20 years!

Check out the latest sea-surface height measurements from the U.S./French Jason-1 oceanography satellite below........

In the image, places where the Pacific sea-surface height is higher (warmer) than normal are yellow and red, and places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are blue and purple. Green shows where conditions are near normal. Sea-surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the upper ocean.

Sea-surface temperature satellite data from NOAA shown below also supports the Jason sea-surface height analysis in showing the classic cool phase of the PDO>

"The present cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will have significant implications for shifts in marine ecosystems, and for land temperature and rainfall patterns around the Pacific basin", said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.

"Even with the strong La Niña event fading in the tropics last spring, the North Pacific's sea surface temperature anomaly pattern has remained strongly negative since last fall. This cool phase will likely persist this winter and, perhaps, beyond", said Nathan Mantua of the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, Seattle.

According to Mantua, the cool phase of the PDO argues against abundant winter/spring precipitation in the southwestern U.S, which includes southern California. The region has been pretty dry recently, but the significant storm this past Wednesday did bring some relief to the region in the form of rain and heavy mountain snow.

Categories: Science

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